A Saviour Needed

 

Wow, quite a title, let me explain. The crash in international ‘foreigner‘ tourism and it’s effects has caused socio-economic chaos and a growing resentment among once thriving Asian tourist market economies. Millions of locals have lost their jobs and businesses and they’re desperate to understand why.

First, governments worldwide deliberately shut down national economies by closing  borders to commerce of almost every kind. Furthermore, the lock-down is absolutely necessary to contain a deadly new strain of virus that could potentially kill millions. Second, people want to know when the pain is going to stop. The simple answer is, no one knows.

“The New Normal” has become a catch-phrase, a white wash of misshapen government policies that have so far done more harm than good. No one wants platitudes as they stave to death. This is true in Asia more than in western countries because there has been a mass distribution of cash to bewildered G7 citizens who can exist within a bubble of controlled panic as long as governments can ‘kick the can down the road’ with social welfare. These welfare programs do not exist in Asia. The poorest are hungry, and hunger has often led to revolution. It takes only a spark to start a conflagration.

Tourism in Asia has taken a turn for the worse over the past three decades. Although wealth has been created, the tourists are very much seen as  cause for the destruction of the local environment and the cultural practices which locals gauge are dissipating and diminished in the fog of western dominance. The tourist has become resented and reluctantly missed in the same breath. This confusion being absorbed by cynical governments to stoke a simmering nationalism to redirect the resentment targeting themselves onto foreigners.

New ‘citizen only‘ programs are helping push the meme that the dire situation is ‘them against us“. In a bizarre Brave New World-like spin the new propaganda campaign against foreigners suggests that hardship caused by Corona is because foreigners aren’t spending money…therefore ‘foreigners are the cause of our strife‘. Governments in Asia have always stoked nationalism by openly harassing foreigners with double pricing, exclusion and highly advertised restrictions on visa’s, ownership/residential rights and licensing. Ex-pats are often the subject of over policing. These policies underwrite a  blithe policy of ‘we’re better than them‘ attitude. To be fair, much of the resentment against foreigners has been perpetuated by the many bad examples of drink/sex tourists who persist here.

National identity is taking a big hit among local citizens. New found tourist wealth creation uplifted millions out of poverty. But, now that the wealth is quickly disappearing, so is the idea that individual countries can claim to stand on their own without western financial support. Thailand, for example has a GDP largely dependent on tourism, some 30%. The Thai ego was riding high when projections showed millions more every year would flood in and keep filling the coffers. There are many venues, temples, restaurants and nightclubs that are posting their rejection of foreigners. It isn’t just double pricing and petulance anymore. Foreigners are openly resented, banned and persona non grata.

After just six months of lock-down and zero tourist income the economy is in a bleak condition and the fiscal cupboard is bare. Still, the latest push by Asian governments is not to develop SME development as self support without tourism, but instead to stimulate tourism by enticing increasingly impoverished locals to fill the empty resorts, with cash subsidies, to create a temporary surge in business until the ‘resented foreigners‘ return. Yes, it makes no sense.

The return of a ‘ Tourist Saviour‘ in Asia might be years away, as Covid rages through the global population, causing an end to global mass tourism , possibly for many years to come. Perpetuating a tourism industry when there are no tourists is akin to the child waiting by the roadside hoping to relive his time at the circus after the tents have left town.

What is the possible future of an economy like Thailand or Bali? Can they collapse inwards and revert to the agrarian communities they once were? In both countries millions of tourism workers have already returned to their villages. They’ve shed their western costumes and don the traditional clothing and habits more resembling the life of ancestors. The number of small and medium size hotels and tourist businesses for sale  is staggering.

The numbers suggests large numbers of tourist operators have given up, never to return. The asking price of commercial and residential property is plummeting. There is no apparent bottom, because there are no buyers. As I’ve said, locals abandoned the communities where tourism once thrived. Phuket…Kuta…ghost towns. The Balinese posses a characteristic unknown to most tourists. The Balinese have a history of resentment towards foreigners. The last ‘Puputan” ( a ritual mass suicide) occurred in 1906. The facade of a diminutive and eternally welcoming folk is paper thin. Thai smiles come in roughly 14 configurations, not all of them welcoming.

In Indonesia and Thailand government allowed an extension of expired visas for the few thousands of stranded tourists whose flights home were cancelled. But that favour ends in days and those last tourists will be forced to leave or be subject to arrest and deportation. The charade of ‘ being the last foreigner living in paradise‘, is a false narrative perpetuated by western media outlets, and coming to an end July 31.